Who Will Win An Oscar This Year?

Final Update: 2.24.2016

I want to thank everyone who participated in the voting for 2016. This year's predictions were incredibly successful, thanks in no small part to your help. I also want to give an enormous shout-out to Walt Hickey and FiveThirtyEight for showcasing this process in their amateur model series this year. You can find articles about that here, here, and here.

Best Picture

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 Spotlight 62.89% 0.017261 0.129092 69.91 0.361742
2 Mad Max: Fury Road 20.01% 0.005491 0.158036 55.71 0.103130
3 The Big Short 14.69% 0.004033 0.144564 57.44 0.140502
4 The Revenant 1.20% 0.000329 0.135617 47.92 -0.022945
5 The Martian 0.88% 0.000241 0.165562 39.57 -0.158925
6 Room 0.33% 0.000091 0.084938 59.42 0.184252
7 Brooklyn 0.00% 0.000000 0.077676 38.14 -0.202196
8 Bridge of Spies 0.00% 0.000000 0.104515 26.84 -0.405560

Best Supporting Actor

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 Mark Ruffalo 39.59% 0.028042 0.213645 52.68 0.031091
2 Tom Hardy 35.11% 0.024867 0.219954 50.87 0.004220
3 Christian Bale 13.53% 0.009586 0.239210 43.10 -0.112691
4 Mark Rylance 9.27% 0.006563 0.179781 52.17 0.026948
5 Sylvester Stallone 2.50% 0.001767 0.147410 53.38 0.050432

Best Actor

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 Leonardo DiCaprio 99.83% 22.543187 0.283353 76.67 0.439176
2 Matt Damon 0.09% 0.020943 0.302243 33.69 -0.124956
3 Michael Fassbender 0.08% 0.018021 0.188902 52.97 0.098263
4 Eddie Redmayne 0.00% 0.000010 0.124262 35.63 -0.207599
5 Bryan Cranston 0.00% 0.000002 0.101240 36.15 -0.204884

Best Director

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 George Miller 92.61% 1.000890 0.233999 67.05 0.284636
2 Alejandro Inarritu 6.99% 0.075514 0.209425 56.93 0.140559
3 Adam McKay 0.21% 0.002254 0.222522 38.35 -0.159508
4 Tom McCarthy 0.19% 0.002049 0.199838 42.09 -0.113794
5 Lenny Abrahamson 0.00% 0.000053 0.134216 40.54 -0.151894

Best Supporting Actress

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 Alicia Vikander 45.81% 0.039465 0.145931 71.43 0.326583
2 Rooney Mara 31.18% 0.026861 0.177202 61.29 0.141597
3 Jennifer Jason Leigh 11.50% 0.009906 0.218561 49.23 -0.086188
4 Kate Winslet 11.02% 0.009492 0.197714 52.21 -0.022450
5 Rachel McAdams 0.50% 0.000431 0.260592 29.29 -0.359541

Best Actress

Name Odds Score Game Ratio Win % Rating
1 Brie Larson 99.87% 31.535762 0.259979 84.04 0.541468
2 Saoirse Ronan 0.11% 0.034077 0.242122 45.77 0.000398
3 Cate Blanchett 0.02% 0.005470 0.216912 42.37 -0.078156
4 Charlotte Rampling 0.00% 0.000016 0.089286 48.82 0.005747
5 Jennifer Lawrence 0.00% 0.000002 0.191702 18.36 -0.469457