Who Will Win An Oscar This Year?

By James England

Final Update: 2.25.2017

Below are the complete detailed results from the matchup model. Thank you to all who participated in the process and be sure to visit my official Predictions Page, where I make my picks (and hedge my bets)

Best Picture

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Moonlight38.62%0.1020490.11664170.420.402981
2La La Land28.40%0.0750490.15257755.800.142963
3Manchester By The Sea13.34%0.0352500.12302656.830.161483
4Hidden Figures10.41%0.0274930.12810852.830.091198
5Arrival6.89%0.0182170.14085145.61-0.034760
6Hell or High Water1.05%0.0027780.10025041.69-0.116741
7Lion1.02%0.0026870.09032244.75-0.058788
8Fences0.23%0.0006120.08125336.56-0.210778
9Hacksaw Ridge0.03%0.0000780.06697228.33-0.377558

Best Director

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Barry Jenkins45.95%0.7414110.19896569.310.366847
2Damien Chazelle42.50%0.6857260.24840858.810.185615
3Denis Villeneuve6.15%0.0992880.23304141.95-0.071532
4Kenneth Lonergan5.39%0.0869540.20708645.10-0.023979
5Mel Gibson0.02%0.0002510.11250022.08-0.456950

Best Supporting Actor

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Mahershala Ali92.50%2.3819870.23696078.270.434339
2Dev Patel3.39%0.0874020.18875150.310.015261
3Jeff Bridges2.83%0.0727720.20666545.44-0.069130
4Lucas Hedges1.07%0.0274590.25408329.70-0.285420
5Michael Shannon0.22%0.0056300.11354144.20-0.095050

Best Actress

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Emma Stone58.55%0.5470480.31159450.60-0.030206
2Natalie Portman30.69%0.2867490.20539760.220.142670
3Ruth Negga7.76%0.0725040.18365850.88-0.009770
4Meryl Streep1.82%0.0170090.21339333.84-0.294358
5Isabelle Huppert1.18%0.0110380.08595761.630.191664

Best Supporting Actress

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Viola Davis66.90%0.8875700.16031084.450.566819
2Naomie Harris18.91%0.2508760.21384657.040.093327
3Octavia Spencer9.20%0.1221100.22616247.61-0.053701
4Michelle Williams4.88%0.0646960.22258642.53-0.136042
5Nicole Kidman0.12%0.0015280.17709622.77-0.470403

Best Actor

NameOddsScoreGame RatioWin %Rating
1Casey Affleck87.64%2.5012270.25835775.260.368745
2Denzel Washington10.60%0.3025270.18022365.380.255950
3Ryan Gosling1.26%0.0358690.28593327.42-0.295134
4Viggo Mortensen0.29%0.0082630.11894246.37-0.070627
5Andrew Garfield0.21%0.0060740.15654634.61-0.258934

Interested in previous results? Check out the Oscars 2016 Results and Oscars 2015 Results pages.