Final Update: 2.25.2017
Below are the complete detailed results from the matchup model. Thank you to all who participated in the process and be sure to visit my official Predictions Page, where I make my picks (and hedge my bets)
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moonlight | 38.62% | 0.102049 | 0.116641 | 70.42 | 0.402981 |
| 2 | La La Land | 28.40% | 0.075049 | 0.152577 | 55.80 | 0.142963 |
| 3 | Manchester By The Sea | 13.34% | 0.035250 | 0.123026 | 56.83 | 0.161483 |
| 4 | 10.41% | 0.027493 | 0.128108 | 52.83 | 0.091198 | |
| 5 | Arrival | 6.89% | 0.018217 | 0.140851 | 45.61 | -0.034760 |
| 6 | Hell or High Water | 1.05% | 0.002778 | 0.100250 | 41.69 | -0.116741 |
| 7 | Lion | 1.02% | 0.002687 | 0.090322 | 44.75 | -0.058788 |
| 8 | Fences | 0.23% | 0.000612 | 0.081253 | 36.56 | -0.210778 |
| 9 | Hacksaw Ridge | 0.03% | 0.000078 | 0.066972 | 28.33 | -0.377558 |
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Jenkins | 45.95% | 0.741411 | 0.198965 | 69.31 | 0.366847 |
| 2 | Damien Chazelle | 42.50% | 0.685726 | 0.248408 | 58.81 | 0.185615 |
| 3 | Denis Villeneuve | 6.15% | 0.099288 | 0.233041 | 41.95 | -0.071532 |
| 4 | Kenneth Lonergan | 5.39% | 0.086954 | 0.207086 | 45.10 | -0.023979 |
| 5 | Mel Gibson | 0.02% | 0.000251 | 0.112500 | 22.08 | -0.456950 |
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahershala Ali | 92.50% | 2.381987 | 0.236960 | 78.27 | 0.434339 |
| 2 | Dev Patel | 3.39% | 0.087402 | 0.188751 | 50.31 | 0.015261 |
| 3 | Jeff Bridges | 2.83% | 0.072772 | 0.206665 | 45.44 | -0.069130 |
| 4 | Lucas Hedges | 1.07% | 0.027459 | 0.254083 | 29.70 | -0.285420 |
| 5 | Michael Shannon | 0.22% | 0.005630 | 0.113541 | 44.20 | -0.095050 |
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emma Stone | 58.55% | 0.547048 | 0.311594 | 50.60 | -0.030206 |
| 2 | Natalie Portman | 30.69% | 0.286749 | 0.205397 | 60.22 | 0.142670 |
| 3 | Ruth Negga | 7.76% | 0.072504 | 0.183658 | 50.88 | -0.009770 |
| 4 | Meryl Streep | 1.82% | 0.017009 | 0.213393 | 33.84 | -0.294358 |
| 5 | Isabelle Huppert | 1.18% | 0.011038 | 0.085957 | 61.63 | 0.191664 |
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viola Davis | 66.90% | 0.887570 | 0.160310 | 84.45 | 0.566819 |
| 2 | Naomie Harris | 18.91% | 0.250876 | 0.213846 | 57.04 | 0.093327 |
| 3 | Octavia Spencer | 9.20% | 0.122110 | 0.226162 | 47.61 | -0.053701 |
| 4 | Michelle Williams | 4.88% | 0.064696 | 0.222586 | 42.53 | -0.136042 |
| 5 | Nicole Kidman | 0.12% | 0.001528 | 0.177096 | 22.77 | -0.470403 |
| Name | Odds | Score | Game Ratio | Win % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey Affleck | 87.64% | 2.501227 | 0.258357 | 75.26 | 0.368745 |
| 2 | Denzel Washington | 10.60% | 0.302527 | 0.180223 | 65.38 | 0.255950 |
| 3 | Ryan Gosling | 1.26% | 0.035869 | 0.285933 | 27.42 | -0.295134 |
| 4 | Viggo Mortensen | 0.29% | 0.008263 | 0.118942 | 46.37 | -0.070627 |
| 5 | Andrew Garfield | 0.21% | 0.006074 | 0.156546 | 34.61 | -0.258934 |